of Engineering Projects and Construction, Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya, ETSEIB, Av. The spatio-temporal analysis of PMi and their influencing factors can be performed following a myriad of available statistical techniques, varying in their complexity, that are chosen according to the aim of the study (Carmona et al. The threshold is itself determined from the health impacts of exposure to the contaminant. A mean function that is used to create the predictions. The outcome can either be yes or no (2 outputs). Moreover, the temporal scale of the measurement (i.e. (2021) [PM2.5-24h] all found negative correlations for temperature and PM2.5 when applying complex statistical techniques. 5 concentrations based on multi-source observations. 5). The influence of ambient temperature and relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and the planetary boundary layer height on PMi remains a topic of interest in air quality research (Chen et al. For PM2.5, the most influential variables are emissions from the industrial sector (land use related factor) and the dry season (associated with the lack of rain). Using a Generalized Additive Model. For PM2.5, the Industrial sector and the dry season are associated with exceeding the threshold. The interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was adopted to analyze inter-examiner consistency. Step-1: Understanding the Sigmoid function The sigmoid function in logistic regression returns a probability value that can then be mapped to two or more discrete classes. Given the lack of governmental environmental air quality information, the scarcity of research on the topic, and the uncertainty about PM1 and PM2.5 pollution in the city of Guayaquil, it is essential to study PMi contamination at different temporal scales, and their spatial distribution around the city. Overall, the model presents a holistic success rate of 78%. Logistic regression is applicable to a broader range of research situations than discriminant analysis. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. 2020), but there is a lack of research on Ecuadorian problems. This limits our understanding of the behaviour of each fraction related to the other. Environ Health Perspect 123(6):549556, Owoade OK, Abiodun PO, Omokungbe OR, Fawole OG, Olise FS, Popoola O, Jones R, Hopke PK (2021) Spatial-temporal variation and local source identification of air pollutants in a semi-urban settlement in Nigeria using low-cost sensors. 1Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, No. The reason is, the idea of Logistic Regression was developed by tweaking a . Odds. (2021) in a study of childhood pneumonia, found that a 10 ug.m3 increase in PM1 and PM2.5 was associated with increased risks of admission to pneumonia by 10.28% (95% CI 5.8814.87%; Lag 02) and 1.21% (95% CI 0.32.09%; Lag 02), respectively. Clinical data and ultrasound parameters of the ipsilateral internal carotid artery, superficial temporal artery, maxillary artery, and posterior cerebral artery were recorded. The logistic regression models the probability of an outcome based on individual characteristics. A new insight into the association of PM1 and PM2.5 with childrens lung function. Psychology press, United Kingdom, Delgado Bohorquez A (2013) GUAYAQUIL. 2022; Han et al. 2021; Zhou and Lin 2019). This figure shows that the concentration is lower in the rainy season due to the wet deposition generated by the high precipitation that is common in Guayaquil. https://www.holcim.com.ec/, Holdnack JA, Millis S, Larrabee GJ, Iverson GL (2013) Assessing performance validity with the ACS. Therefore, the researchs aim was to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of PM1 and PM2.5 concentrations and their main influencing factors. Therefore, we measured the velocity of the PCA and the MA to reflect the compensation for the anterior circulation. It contains information about UserID, Gender, Age, EstimatedSalary, and Purchased. Overall, the sectors (sector-specific emission sources) and long-term local meteorological parameters influenced the PM2.5-24h concentrations. Within the city there are various industrial and urban land uses sharing the same space. {5}}} :{{ predictive model}}} \right]: \hfill \\ \left[ {{{PM}}_{{{2}. The table also includes the test of significance for each of the coefficients in the logistic regression model. : Reviewing and Editing. Since 2008 the city has been increasing its population, vehicle fleet and manufacturing industries. J Meteorol Res 31(3):597611, Yu T, Wang Y, Huang J, Liu X, Li J, Zhan W (2022) Study on the regional prediction model of PM2. 2022; Li et al. To understand the effect of adjusting the LOGIT model, chi-squared likelihood statistics were used. There are also recreational activities that are open to the public until late at night. Sci Total Environ 605:647654, Ordez C, Barriopedro D, Garca-Herrera R (2019) Role of the position of the North Atlantic jet in the variability and odds of extreme PM10 in Europe. The name multinomial logistic regression is usually . Public policies and interventions should aim to regulate land uses while continuously monitoring emission sources, both regular and unusual. Multiple linear regression analysis (MLR) is a statistical technique that establishes a relationship between a set of more than two independent variables (IVs) to determine the extent they can explain the dependent variable (DV). For both size fractions, the Cement Plant sector is linked to not exceeding the threshold. Wang and Ogawa (2015) and Munir et al. (2017), who warn that most of the adverse health effects of PM2.5 come from the PM1 size fraction. As a result, 106 events were identified, of which 80 were related to vehicular traffic, 8 to rainfall, and 18 to exceptional emissions. Multiple logistic regression is a classification algorithm that outputs the probability that an example falls into a certain category. Instead, changes in the tendencies of these variables are observed during the two seasons. c Brain magnetic resonance imaging showed an infarct in the left hemisphere. Logistic regression is a technique for predicting a dichotomous outcome variable from 1+ predictors. In this work, we used logistic regression to analyze the relationship between ultrasound parameters including the ICA, STA, MA and PCA and ipsilateral cerebral hemisphere stroke in MMD patients, which provides evidence for the use of ultrasound to aid in identifying stroke in MMD patients. This study was funded by State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (Grant No. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:1511715126, IND - Cmara de Industrias de Guayaquil (2020) Cmara de Industrias de Guayaquil: 84 aos en una ciudad con tradicin industrial. The specific location, emissions resulting from habitual industrial activities, common public transport, unusual events (vegetation fires, significant variations in vehicular traffic) and the seasons are among variables of interest when assessing the spatio-temporal variations of PMi concentrations (Taheri and Sodoudi 2016). {328 }\left[ {{Dry season}} \right] \, + { 5}. However, this threshold could be unacceptable using Persilys definition of acceptable air quality. (2022) [PM2.5-24h], Owoade et al. The authors confirm that the citys flat orography and the south and south-western trade winds disperse contaminants. There were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of sex, age, or the proportions of patients with hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking and drinking (Table (Table11). (2021b) [BCPM2.5 Month] reported negative correlations between PM and RH. Urban Clim 38:100896, Ambade B, Sethi SS, Kurwadkar S, Kumar A, Sankar TK (2021b) Toxicity and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface water, sediments and groundwater vulnerability in Damodar River Basin. 2014). 5, coarse fraction and meteorological parameters in various environments in central Europe. When the ratio of the two was less than 0.5, it was called the bottleneck sign. Chemosphere 301:134640, Geo Ecuador (2008) Informe sobre el estado del medio ambiente (2008). Any analysis will support the development of adequate policy engagement at the local level by responsible authorities. The research results concluded that students who have a room or a . In this work, we used ultrasound to detect the hemodynamic parameters of the PCA, STA and MA, including the PSV of the PCA, the ID and PSV of the STA, and the PSV of the MA. (2022) was used. PM2.5-24h also has a moderate negative correlation with minimum temperature and relative humidity. The results of the RLog were aligned with the relationships obtained by the MLR: local short-term meteorology and the sampling sector influenced PM1 concentrations. The interpretation of the magnitude of the Pearson correlations followed the guidelines proposed by Ratner (2011). 2020). Similarly, higher hourly temperature (Lag=6h, CC[T~PM2.5]-1h Max=0.673, p<0.00) and lower relative humidity (Lag=6h, CC[RH~PM2.5]-1h Max=0.687, p<0.00) were associated with higher PM2.5-1h concentrations, while the effect of hourly wind speed is variable, both promoting higher PM (Lag=0h, CC[WS~PM2.5]-1h Max=0.495 p<0.00) and lower PM (Lag=10h, CC[WS~PM2.5]-1h Max=0.360, p<0.00). Ethics approval and consent to participate. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The influence of meteorological variables on hourly concentrations was evidenced through a bivariate cross-correlation function analysis. The number of records used for this analysis was: 1 188 from PM1-1h, and 1 123 from PM2.5-1h, due to failures with the sampling equipment in the industrial sector. The patient was placed in a lateral position, and the P2 segment of the PCA was examined through the temporal window. The results shows the need to improve the air quality monitoring system in Guayaquil because there is currently a scarcity of updated information and no particulate matter monitoring. In this research, the reference threshold used for both fractions is the limit value proposed for PM2.5-24h by the WHO (2021) (PM2.5-WHO-24h=15gm3). The association between obesity and incident CVD is statistically significant (p=0.0017). Similarly, an increase of 10gm3 of PM2.5 was associated with a 0.65% increase in mortality by Orellano et al. It was conjectured that the high PSV of the PCA can generate abundant collateral circulation. Spatio temporal analysis refers to the exploration of any information relating to space and time (Gudmundsson et al. Guayaquil, Ecuador, is in a tropical area on the equatorial Pacific Ocean coast of South America. High PM2.5 concentrations could be a consequence of the strong industrial activity and the continuous occurrence of traffic-related events on the two expressways that circumscribe the sector. It's a powerful statistical way of modeling a binomial outcome with one or more explanatory variables. : Conceptualization, Methodology, Original draft preparation, Visualization, Investigation, Data Curation. In statistics, the logistic model (or logit model) is a statistical model that models the probability of an event taking place by having the log-odds for the event be a linear combination of one or more independent variables. {158 } + { 5}. The current work results could be used for: (i) designing an adequate and complete monitoring system; (ii) improving local regulations with more appropriate thresholds for acceptable PMi concentrations that meet a definition of acceptability; (iii) focus on mitigation by sector (location) by setting targets for decreasing emissions; (iv) developing adequate adaptation policies; and (v) designing an effective early warning system (EWS) to cope with this environmental hazard. 2021; Chiquetto et al. 5 prediction based on multivariate linear regression model. Logistic regression, also called a logit model, is used to model dichotomous outcome variables. For Unusual Events, an increase in its value by one unit implies an increase of 3.177 units of PM1-24h (in g m3). (2022) [PM2.5-24h], Ambade et al. Example: how likely are people to die before 2020, given their age in 2015? MMD moyamoya disease, ICA internal carotidartery, DSA digital subtraction angiography, CT computed tomography, MRI magnetic resonance imaging, Comparison of baseline data between the stroke group and non-stroke group for MMD, Comparison of ultrasound parameters between the stroke group and non-stroke group for MMD, ICA-ID Internal diameter of internal carotidartery, Q1 First quartile, Q2 Second quartile, Q3 Third quartile, Q4 Fourth quartile, ICA-PSV Peak systolic velocity of internal carotid artery, STA-ID Internal diameter of superficial temporal artery, STA-PSV Peak systolic velocity of superficial temporal artery, MA-PSV Peak systolic velocity of maxillary artery, PCA-PSV Peak systolic velocity of posterior cerebral artery, a, b Digital subtraction angiography confirmed moyamoya disease in the left hemisphere. 2020). Tables 8 and 9 show a comparison between the dichotomous variables and PMi-24h concentrations using the Students t-test for independent samples with 0.05. On the other hand, the biggest strength of threshold-based approaches is their usefulness for identifying the tendencies of contaminant concentrations, which is the reason why it is the most commonly used approach by stakeholders in the decision making process for assessing air quality. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Now, by looking at the name, you must think, why is it named Regression? (A) The generated heat map according to correlation analysis to screen independent variables for adverse events; (B) feature selection of Top 15 adverse outcomes predictive variables according to the value of AUC calculated by DT algorithm; (C) the ROC-AUC values of machine learning and logistic regression predictive models developed from the . Two models were developed, and the dependent variables used for each MLR were PM1-24h and PM2.5-24h. In Table 1 we present the type, units and distribution descriptors for the dependent variables of the MLR model. Logistic regression analysis showed that the ID of the ICA, the PSV of the ICA and the PSV of the PCA were independent factors related to ipsilateral cerebral hemisphere stroke in MMD. sensory irritation or odour) and visual/tangible aspects of the air (i.e. Ul-Saufie et al. Logistic regression is a predictive modelling algorithm that is used when the Y variable is binary categorical. (2022) [PM2.5-1h], Li et al. 2020; Upadhyay et al. 2014). It also indicates that, when anthropogenic events occur, PM1 concentration increases, which agrees the results of the bi-variate analysis. The incidence of ipsilateral intracranial hemorrhage in patients with the bottleneck sign was significantly higher than that in those without the bottleneck sign. Industries in social networks did not report operational problems related to emissions. Logistic regression is a statical method for preventing binary classes or we can say that logistic regression is conducted when the dependent variable is dichotomous. A recent systematic review of chronic or long-term exposures (>24h) reported that a 10gm3 increase in PM2.5 concentration is associated with an 8% increase in total mortality (pooled RR 1.08; 95% CI: 1.061.09; 25 studies) (Chen and Hoek 2020). Currently, the national air quality standard of Ecuador for ambient PM2.5-24h is 50 ug.m3 and so the PM2.5-24h concentrations found her are below this magnitude. Overall, the bi-variate analysis showed that temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed are significantly linked to PM1 and PM2.5 concentrations. 2022; Zhao et al. Gaussian Distribution: Logistic regression is a linear algorithm (with a non-linear transform on output). One limitation in our study is that the sampling of PM2.5 and PM1 was not simultaneous, because of equipment availability. Impact of posterior cerebral artery involvement on long-term clinical and social outcome of pediatric moyamoya disease. Daily average values are useful to establish whether a site complies with 24-h reference thresholds. The classification table indicates the absolute frequency, the correct classification percentages when exceeding the threshold, and the holistic success rate. The predominant wind was calm (WS;<1ms1) and higher speeds in drought (light breezes). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.05.025, Article Logistic regression finds the weights and that correspond to the maximum LLF. A logistic regression model does not involve decision trees and is more akin to nonlinear regression such as fitting a polynomial to a set of data values. Our protocol established that measurements begin in each sector with the PM1 fraction for 7 consecutive days and then continue with the PM2.5 fraction for another 7 consecutive days. The probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in many trials. As ultrasound enables us to acquire hemodynamic information from MMD patients in a non-invasive and convenient manner, it has been used in preoperative examination and postoperative prognosis evaluation of MMD [68]. Sample Query 3: Making Predictions for a Continuous Value. Of these events, 59 occurred during the PM1 sampling and 47 during the PM2.5 sampling. Example. The ultrasound parameters, including the ID of the ICA, the PSV of the ICA, the ID of the STA, the PSV of the STA, the PSV of the MA and the PSV of the PCA were divided into four groups according to interquartile range, and the differences between the stroke group and the non-stroke group in various ultrasound parameters were compared. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/. 5) are constructed from the information in Table 9: The model shows that the independent variable with the highest weight when predicting PM1 concentrations is the occurrence of a rain event on the sampling day (see in Table 10). Here's what a Logistic Regression model looks like: logit (p) = a+ bX + cX ( Equation ** ) You notice that it's slightly different than a linear model. Logistic regression is one of the most popular Machine Learning algorithms, which comes under the Supervised Learning technique. The authors declare no potential conflict of interest. (Figs.22 and and33). Digital subtraction angiography (DSA) is the gold standard for the diagnosis of MMD. Indonesia University of Education. Occurrences of unusual events that promote emissions of PMi are related to higher PMi-24h concentrations. Environ Geochem Health, 125. Some common indicators include or rely on peoples perception of air quality, physiological-acute responses (i.e. The name logistic regression is used when the dependent variable has only two values, such as 0 and 1 or Yes and No. We found that the higher the PSV of PCA, the less likely the patient suffered from ipsilateral cerebral hemisphere stroke. Performance indicators (Tables 10 and 11) were used to measure accuracy and errors in the MLR models. The industrial activity comprises medium and small industries, such as food and beverages, chemicals, paints, asphalt, carpet factories, and plastics production. Therefore, with the progression of MMD, the ID and PSV of the ICA decreased, both of which are independent parameters related to ipsilateral cerebral hemisphere stroke in MMD patients. 81730050). In Logistic Regression, the Sigmoid (aka Logistic) Function is used. During daylight hours, there is a strong diurnal variation, since during the sunny hours, the planetary boundary layer extends to a greater height generating certain atmospheric instability that helps the dispersion of contaminants (Azad 2012; Vil-Guerau de Arellano et al. 2021). Five-year risk of stroke after TIA or minor ischemic stroke. Our result is consistent with those of previous studies. https://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/transporte/, Johansson E, Yahia MW, Arroyo I, Bengs C (2018) Outdoor thermal comfort in public space in warm-humid Guayaquil, Ecuador. e Transcranialcolor-coded duplex sonography of the leftposteriorcerebral artery, Multivariate logistic regression analysis of ultrasound parameters related to stroke for MMD, OR Odds ratio, CI Confidence interval, ICA-ID Internal diameter of internal carotidartery, Q4 Fourth quartile, Q3 Third quartile, Q2 Second quartile, Q1 First quartile, ICA-PSV Peak systolic velocity of internal carotid artery, PCA-PSV Peak systolic velocity of posterior cerebral artery, Ultrasound parameters associated with stroke in patients with moyamoya disease: a logistic regression analysis, Stroke includes ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke. In the future, large-scale prospective cohort studies are needed to verify the clinical value of ultrasound in identifying MMD patients at high risk of stroke. To discretize the values of PMi-24h in binary values, the approach of Rincon et al. 2022; Zhao et al. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 193(10):11431150, Weisberg S (2014) Applied linear regression. Kuroda S, Hashimoto N, Yoshimoto T, Iwasaki Y, Research Committee on Moyamoya Disease in Japan Radiological findings, clinical course, and outcome in asymptomatic moyamoya disease: results of multicenter survey in Japan. The fourth quartile group of the above three ultrasound parameters was taken as the reference group, and the odds ratio of the first quartile group were 11.679 (95% CI 2.91846.749, P=0.001), 19.594 (95% CI 4.97377.193, P<0.001), and 11.657 (95% CI 3.22142.186, P<0.001), respectively. This suggests that the PM-WS relationship is polynomial (Chen et al. Guayaquil is one of the two largest cities in Ecuador with an estimated population of 2.7 million inhabitants in 2020 (INEC 2016). (6) with the values given by Table 17. If you are looking at the odds (e^log odds) its an exponential and relative effect. The collected information was organised by the type of event, its time and date, and sector of the occurrence. 2021; Zhou and Lin 2019). Furthermore, every study would have variables outside its scope, resulting in relationships that are not always fully explained. Figure4 shows a boxplot of PMi-1h for both seasons (88% of PM1 data; 84% of PM2.5 data). One psuedo R 2 is the McFadden's-R 2 statistic (sometimes called the likelihood ratio index [LRI]): The patient took a supine position and turned their head to the other side. (2012) [PM10-24h], Rybarczyk and Zalakeviciute (2018) [PM2.5-imin], Chelani (2019) [PM2.5-24h] and Zhao et al. Likewise, Wang et al. 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